The US economy is heading into a recession and technology spending is in for a steep decline in 2008. So every major prognosticator and news outlet from the Wall Street Journal to the Financial Times would have us believe.

Are these people watching the same movie I am? There are two problems I have with this economic hyperbole. Yes that’s what it is. I guess it sells newspapers and gets people to watch things like CNBC. But boy is it misleading.

First of all, in macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in any country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. Yet nobody that I’ve read is forecasting negative growth. They’re forecasting a potential slow down in growth from the current 3.5% per quarter to 1.5 to 2.5% per quarter. But the news outlets feel compelled to use the “R” word just to get attention. Totally irresponsible.

On to my second gripe. With regards to technology and IT spending, I believe, based on what I see, we are in beginning of a long-term gradual increase in IT spending within large enterprises that started eighteen to twenty four months ago.