The Tale of Two IT Technologies
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Last week two significant developments took place in the world of datacenter technologies. At first these two events may seem unrelated but a closer look makes for an interesting debate about how we’ll be managing our IT environments and who will be providing the solutions.
First Marc Andreesen posted on his blog, “HP bought my company for $1.6B.” He thanked everyone that had ever worked at Loudcloud and then Opsware as it is now known. Marc also pointed out anyone who had ever bought his company’s stock made some money. That’s cool.
The $14.25 a share HP paid was a 39% premium, but I was actually surprised by the acquisition. I expected Opsware to go much further on their own.
After eight years Opsware is still losing money, $10M in the last quarter on $28M in sales. I remember running into Marc in Palo Alto a few years ago and he said if a customer wasn’t willing to spend at least a million dollars it didn’t really make sense for Opsware to engage. IMHO much of this originates from the fact that the original Opsware product and technology does something very ambitious making it harder for potential buyers to try it out. This requires a significant effort by Opsware to support those customers who decide to take the plunge.
On the flip side BladeLogic floated their initial public offering last week. Although a much smaller and newer player than Opsware, Blade Logic closed after one day of trading with a $655M market capitalization. Comparing the two Opsware reported more than $100M in trailing 12 month revenues and BladeLogic reported $36M. HP bought Opsware for 15x trailing revenues and Bladelogic is trading at 18x trailing revenues. But, prior to the HP acquisition Opsware was trading at just 9x trailing revenues or half the relative valuation of Bladelogic.
So what do the Blade Logic share holders know that Opsware’s didn’t? Perhaps after eight years and different business models Opsware’s supporters just got tired. Maybe the frothiness of the public market for tech companies is back and shining on BladeLogic?
Certainly it seems BladeLogic has an easier to adopt solution given the fast ramp in customers and revenue they’ve experienced. Yet it is unclear looking at the numbers as to whether Bladelogic has a higher growth and/or more leveraged operating model than Opsware.
But in their most recent quarter Bladelogic did report $12.5M in revenues on an operating loss of just $185k and it does seem Wall Street likes the new darling better.
So will you be buying a do it all automation solution from HP or an easier to deploy bite size product from BladeLogic to handle your routine datacenter tasks?
